Generalisation
Conversative
- White British
- Less than A-Level
- Over 60
- Rural
- Males
- Suburb Labour
- Ethnic Minority
- Degree or Higher
- Under 40
- Towns
- Females
- City
Types of Factors
- Primacy: factors about the voter - long-term.
- Recency: factors that change between elections - short-term.
Gender - primacy
- Males vote more right-wing
- Females vote more left-wing Ethnicity - primacy
- White British vote more right-wing
- Ethnic minorities vote more left-wing News and campaigns - recency Recent events - recency Religion - primacy
- Christian (weak indicator), Hinduism, Sikhism, Islamism, … vote more left-wing
- although this may be measuring ethnicity - religion is a weak indicator in the UK. Prime minister - recency Age - recency Generation - primacy Location - primacy
- Liberal Democrats did well in Southern commuter areas
- Labour did well in cities
- Right-wing (mostly conservatives) did well in rural areas
Examples
Warning
AI generated. See Factors in Elections for a more developed table.
| Factor | Type | 2024 Election Example |
|---|---|---|
| Ethnicity | Primacy | Labour saw a drop in Muslim voters due to Keir Starmer’s stance on the Gaza war. |
| Location | Primacy | The Liberal Democrats won many seats in the “Blue Wall” (wealthy Southern commuter areas). |
| Age | Recency | Voters under 40 voted mostly for Labour, while the Conservatives only led among voters over 70. |
| Gender | Primacy | Women were slightly more likely to vote for Labour or the Greens than men. |
| Recent Events | Recency | High cost of living and NHS waiting lists caused many people to vote against the Conservatives. |
| Prime Minister | Recency | Low approval ratings for Rishi Sunak made it harder for the Conservatives to keep their seats. |
| Education | Primacy | People with a Degree or higher were much more likely to vote Labour or Liberal Democrat. |
| News/Campaigns | Recency | The rise of Reform UK on social media took many “right-wing” votes away from the Conservatives. |